Part 37: Interlude: Deadweight losses.

Interlude: Deadweight Loss.
January 1, 2016

Whereas past transfer windows have been focused primarily on adding players to the club in order to strengthen it, this one will be markedly different. I'm seeking to pare down the roster, ridding ourselves of those players that have proven disappointments or merely been superseded by greater talents. Barring the discovery of a hidden gem any additions we make will be loan players who come at no cost to us. We have 26 first team players at the start of the window, and I'd like to see us around 22 by the time it closes.



Our field is still in OK shape. I'm guessing the pitch deterioration rate is medium, better than that of Tackleford, which is why I was so very wrong about when it'd become completely degraded.



We have a number of players with six months remaining on their contracts, as well as a few staff who need contract extensions. I'm going to try and move Wright, Baker, and Watts this transfer window, while I'll look into new offers for Simpson, Bailey, and Thomas. O'Hanlon and Ashton will also be looked at in regards to whether they'll stick around.



Income in each category is up year on year in every category but gate receipts. That's due to the huge £1.3m payday we earned from playing Man U last season in the FA Cup, absent that our day of match ticket sales are up solidly compared to the previous year.



Our margins are being eaten into by just about everything being more expensive this year as compared to last. We're on pace to spend nearly a million more pounds in salary over the course of the year, and everything from youth setup to non-soccer costs are up significantly from last year.



We're £100k in the red at the moment, something that will be rectified by our next match on January 2nd. I think what happened with the wage budget the game offered last season was the game thinking that our turnover was going to be bumped up by a £1.3m lump sum from getting half of Man U's gate receipts from a FA Cup match every year. In that respect it's a very good thing we drew an away match against another gigantic club, or we might have ended up in debt at the end of the year. It also means that your accountants are incompetent when they told you at the end of last season how much the wage budget would bear. Because of this I'm angling to cut back on salary expenditures this transfer window.



Confidence in my leadership is decent, buoyed by another good FA Cup run.



Coulson is an immediate hit with the fans. Reid, not so much.



Stuart Simpson has been on a tear recently, and the fans are pleased about it.



The squad is in generally good spirits, and more importantly we now have many players who have raised their season ratings from the 6.1-6.4 range to the 6.5-7.0 range. Whereas Stuart Simpson lead the team in average rating with a 6.76 the last time I posted this in October, we now have six players with averages above that, lead by Bailey at a respectable 7.03.



We've got a young team, but otherwise are not all that far from average.



Our decisions, work rate, and teamwork are all pretty poor, and we're not great shakes in any other category.



Al-Beloushi and Higgs make up one of the best keeper tandems in the league. By the ratings this is our strongest area.



Our defense is blazing fast but weak in the air. This would be part of the reason why we've given up more goals than usual on corner kicks, our defenders aren't so good at getting up and heading the ball away.



Our midfield is very creative, but lacks stamina, teamwork, and technique.



Like our defense, our attack has the pace to beat anyone, which is perfect for our game strategy. We're held back by our league worst score in Finishing, which is a major reason why we don't convert nearly as many chances as we should.



We handle the 4-4-2 well, but we seem to struggle against teams that play five in the midfield with a lone striker. I can't immediately tell if that's due to opponent quality or a vulnerability our strategy has to five man midfields.



This encompasses the whole of our league season so far. It's apparent that the 4-2-3-1 should not be used against league opponents as it gives up 2.6 goals a game. The 4-5-1 gives up 1.4, which isn't great but is damned sight better and we're only -6 on goal differential while using it across 1765 minutes. Just 461 minutes of the 4-2-3-1 has lead to a -10 goal differential.



In our last five cup matches we've been up against better teams while playing the 4-5-1, hence the worse goal numbers.



We're not going to be able to scout outside of the UK and Ireland for a while, hence why we're not all that knowledgeable about anywhere beyond it. I don't think my scouts even know Uruguay exists. Once we're in the Championship then we can start looking at scouting Europe, worldwide scouting will have to wait until we're in the Premier League.



Check out that tactical preparedness! We are able to cut back on match training now, and focus on specific things for each match. That's usually defensive movement, but can also be defending set pieces, attacking set pieces, attacking movement, and teamwork.




Most of our players are doing well in training, the only one who's not at least holding steady is Bah. He's declined in ability after being out injured for months.



Our kids are also doing well, again the only poor performances come from injured or recently injured players. To get an idea how much players will improve year over year, here's four of our more improved players.

Stuart Martin
Then:

Now:


Martin has improved by a point in most catagories, even those not related to his role as a centerback. He's especially improved his strength, which makes him better able to fight for the ball. At the age of 25 his improvement will probably slow until he hits his peak in a couple years and then he'll start declining after he turns 30.

Stuart Simpson
Then:

Now:


Stuart Simpson has improved his stamina and strength, both important for a defensive midfielder. His marking has also improved by two points, and needs to continue to improve for him to excel at the task of winning the ball in the midfield. He's still a ways away from peaking at only 22 years old, so he should maintain this rate of improvement for another year or two.

Daniel Thomas
Then:

Now:


While Martin and Simpson have both featured heavily in our first team, Thomas hasn't. Despite this he's improved a good deal. Young players don't need to have a ton of time on the pitch to see big gains, if you give them 500 minutes or so over the course of the season they'll still get a lot out of it.

William Harrison
Then:

Now:


Harrison has seen a lot of improvement in the past nine months. His physical skills have blossomed, and he's probably the speediest striker in the league. His improvement despite missing 6 weeks with injury is impressive.



Our fixture list is thankfully uncrowded, meaning that we should be able to keep our players rested and ready for each match until the end of the season. This will allow us to play our first team players each game rather than sitting them in order to recover from the prior game. That'll also have the advantage of making our players even more comfortable together on the field. First up, though, is another trip to Manchester.